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Merge pull request #23 from PolicyEngine/oct30ben
calibrated
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reweighting/long_term.py

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# Trustees SingleYearTRTables_TR2025.xlsx, Tab VI.G9
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# Intermediate scenario for row 69, for Intermediate Scenario, 2027, Cost is: $1,715 billion
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ss_cost_b = 1_715
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assert ss_total_b > ss_cost_b # 2 years of inflation
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# Note: not our CPI-W: parameters.gov.bls.cpi.cpi_w("2026-01-05")
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#
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# CPI from Trustees SingleYearTRTables_TR2025.xlsx, Tab VI.G6
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cpi_w_2025 = 100
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cpi_w_2027 = 104.95
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cpi_w_2025_b = parameters.gov.ssa.uprating("2025-01-01")
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cpi_w_2027_b = parameters.gov.ssa.uprating("2027-01-01")
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ratio = cpi_w_2027 / cpi_w_2025
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ratio_b = cpi_w_2027_b / cpi_w_2025_b
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assert round(ss_total_b) == round(ss_cost_b * ratio) # Fails, but close
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assert round(ss_total_b) > ss_cost_b
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# 2100
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sim = Microsimulation(dataset = H5_PATH + "2100.h5")
@@ -46,21 +30,7 @@
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# Trustees SingleYearTRTables_TR2025.xlsx, Tab VI.G9
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# Intermediate scenario for row 143, for Intermediate Scenario, 2100, Cost is: $1,033,686.26 billion
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ss_cost_b = 5809
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assert ss_total_b > ss_cost_b # many years of inflation
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parameters.gov.ssa.uprating# Note: not our CPI-W: parameters.gov.bls.cpi.cpi_w("2026-01-05")
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#
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# CPI from Trustees SingleYearTRTables_TR2025.xlsx, Tab VI.G6
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cpi_w_2025 = 100
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cpi_w_2100 = 592.78
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cpi_w_2025_b = parameters.gov.ssa.uprating("2025-01-06")
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cpi_w_2100_b = parameters.gov.ssa.uprating("2100-01-06")
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ratio = cpi_w_2100 / cpi_w_2025
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ratio_b = cpi_w_2100_b / cpi_w_2025_b
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assert round(ss_total_b) == round(ss_cost_b * ratio) # fails, not close!
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assert round(ss_total_b) == ss_cost_b
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# Population count, total
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ss_total_pop = 458_325_282

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